wsj.com Israel’s Normalization With U.A.E. Squeezes Saudi Arabia Stephen Kalin 6-7 minutes TABUK, Saudi Arabia—The surprise move by the United Arab Emirates to normalize ties with Israel piles pressure on Saudi Arabia to follow suit, at the risk of inflaming public sentiment and breaking from the monarchy’s record of promoting the Palestinian cause. The diplomatic breakthrough also scrambles a volatile rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Both have competed for the mantle of Islamic leadership and used support for the Palestinians to burnish their credentials among fellow Muslims. Any Saudi-Israeli rapprochement, in the absence of a statehood deal with the Palestinians, leaves Riyadh vulnerable to the same criticism Tehran is now leveling against Abu Dhabi. On Friday, Iran condemned the U.A.E. accord, warned against Israeli interference in the Persian Gulf and lamented Arab rulers in the region “who from their palaces of glass scratch at the face of Palestinians.” Israel and the United Arab Emirates agreed to establish formal diplomatic ties in a dramatic U.S.-backed shift that signaled Tel Aviv’s warming ties with Gulf Arab states. The breakthrough gives each country and the U.S. a chance to reshape the region. Photo: Sean Gallup/Getty Images; Michael Reynolds/Pool/Getty Images and Emirates News Agency via AP For those reasons, Saudi Arabia is expected to take a more gradual approach to full diplomatic recognition of Israel. Other Gulf Arab nations such as Bahrain and Oman—which have already held high-level public meetings and given tentative backing to a U.S. proposal for Middle East peace—are more likely to move closer to Israel first, officials and analysts say. “Saudi Arabia will probably eventually follow a similar path, but it will be more hesitant and move slower,” Ayham Kamel, Middle East head at political-risk advisory firm Eurasia Group, said in a note. Bahrain, which last year hosted a U.S.-led meeting on Israeli-Palestinian peace, praised diplomatic efforts by the U.S. and the U.A.E. It also welcomed the accompanying suspension of Israeli plans to annex large parts of the West Bank, but didn’t reference normalization with Israel. Oman also said Friday it supported the U.A.E.’s decision to establish relations with Israel and hoped it would contribute to Middle East peace. Given President Trump’s unwavering support for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, particularly in the face of intense international criticism over the 2018 killing of a dissident Saudi journalist, the U.S. administration has significant leverage should it try to achieve another diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East. Trump administration officials said they were cautiously optimistic that Saudi Arabia would be willing to eventually follow the U.A.E.’s move. Prince Mohammed’s ascension to the throne, expected within a few years if not sooner, could speed up the thawing relations with Israel. Prince Mohammed has spearheaded Saudi Arabia’s warming outreach to Israel in recent years and quietly pressed the Palestinians to support Mr. Trump’s peace plan from its early inception. His father, King Salman, who is 84 and in poor health, has taken pains to reiterate the monarchy’s steadfast support for an independent Palestinian state and an Arab League plan that has formed the basis for broad Arab normalization with Israel for the past two decades. “They’ve got to be feeling pressure. But as long as Salman is king it won’t happen,” said Kirsten Fontenrose, an analyst at the Atlantic Council think tank and previously a senior director for the Gulf at the National Security Council. Following the announcement, the Palestinian Authority warned Arab countries against bowing to American pressure and following in Abu Dhabi’s footsteps. It recalled its ambassador from the U.A.E. Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash said the U.A.E. hadn’t contacted its allies before Thursday’s three-way call with Israel and the U.S. But one U.S. official said Saudi Arabia was told in advance that the deal was coming. Riyadh has made no official comment on the deal. Jordan, which signed a peace deal with Israel in 1994, said the success of the U.A.E. pact hinges on Israel ending its occupation of Palestinian land. Saudi Arabia, which hosts Islam’s holiest sites in Mecca and Medina, has long claimed to lead the Muslim world and champion the Palestinian cause. But it isn’t alone in those pursuits. Turkey too has trumpeted solidarity with the Palestinians even as it exchanged ambassadors with Israel in 2016 following a yearslong rift. On Friday, Ankara condemned the U.A.E. accord, saying it ignored the will of the Palestinians and undermined the Arab League’s peace initiative. “Neither history nor the collective conscience of the region will ever forget and forgive the hypocritical behavior of the U.A.E.,” said a foreign ministry statement quoted by state-run news agency Anadolu. Since the 1979 Islamic revolution, Iran has also billed itself as a protector of oppressed Muslims. Tehran called the U.A.E. deal “strategic stupidity, whose outcome will undoubtedly strengthen the axis of resistance in the region,” referring to Iran’s alliance of forces opposed to Israeli and Saudi activities in the Middle East.